Super – Forecasting

Super-Forecasting is a groundbreaking book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner that explores the science of predicting the future and making smarter decisions under uncertainty. Virtually every major choice we make—from buying a house and switching careers to expanding a business—relies on predictions about what lies ahead. However, research shows that most experts are barely better at forecasting future events than random guesswork. Super-Forecasting reveals that a rare group of ordinary people actually possesses remarkable predictive foresight, consistently outperforming professional analysts and intelligence operatives.

Based on a massive, government-funded research project involving over a million predictions, Super-Forecasting examines the practical habits, mindsets, and analytical techniques used by these top performers. The authors explain how these “superforecasters” gather diverse perspectives, break complex problems into manageable pieces, update their beliefs based on new data, and systematically overcome cognitive biases.

Whether you are an executive managing corporate risk, a student evaluating career options, or a lifelong learner seeking to improve your critical thinking, this masterclass provides actionable tools to help you evaluate evidence, anticipate future outcomes, and make better decisions in an unpredictable world.

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